Optimally Reconciling Forecasts in a Hierarchy
نویسنده
چکیده
42 HIERARCHICAL STRUCTURES T series can often be naturally disaggregated using attributes such as product type. The total number of bicycles sold by a cycling warehouse, for example, can be disaggregated into a hierarchy of bicycle types. Such a warehouse will sell road bikes, mountain bikes, children’s bikes, and hybrids. Each of these can be disaggregated further into finer categories. Children’s bikes can be divided into balance bikes for children under 4 years old, single-geared bikes for children between 4 and 6, and multigeared bikes for children over the age of 6. Hybrid bikes can be divided into city, commuting, comfort, and trekking bikes; and so on. Such disaggregation imposes a hierarchical structure and we refer to these as hierarchical time series.
منابع مشابه
Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series
In many applications, there are multiple time series that are hierarchically organized and can be aggregated at several different levels in groups based on products, geography or some other features. We call these “hierarchical time series”. They are commonly forecast using either a “bottom-up” or a “top-down” method. In this paper we propose a new approach to hierarchical forecasting which pro...
متن کاملFast computation of reconciled forecasts for hierarchical and grouped time series
We describe some fast algorithms for reconciling large collections of time series forecasts with aggregation constraints. The constraints arise due to the need for forecasts of collections of time series with hierarchical or grouped structures to add up in the same manner as the observed time series. We show that the least squares approach to reconciling hierarchical forecasts can be extended t...
متن کاملGrouped functional time series forecasting: an application to age-specific mortality rates
Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state and ethnicity. Forecasting age-specific mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in developing social policy. However, independent forecasts of agespecific mortality rates at the sub-national levels may not add up to the forecasts at the national level. To addr...
متن کاملReconciling forecasts for hierarchical and grouped time series
Time series can often be naturally disaggregated in a hierarchical structure using attributes such as product type. For example, the total number of bicycles sold by a cycling warehouse can be disaggregated into a hierarchy of bicycle types. Such a warehouse will sell road bikes, mountain bikes, children bikes or hybrids. Each of these can be disaggregated into finer categories. Children’s bike...
متن کاملالگوسازی و پیشبینی مصرف انرژی بخش حمل و نقل ایران: کاربردی از الگوهای هوش مصنوعی
Ever-increasing dependence of human life on energy has made this factor play a critically crucial role either potentially or actively in the functions of various economic sectors of countries. Therefore, the people in charge of any country should try to make exact forecasting of energy consumption and make correct planning about its consumption in a way to optimally control supply-demand parame...
متن کامل